Hanging by a thread: is the US heading for recession?

In contrast to the Eurozone, the USA is benefiting from its low dependence on foreign trade, the willingness of private households to spend and the lively investment activity of companies. Therefore, the USA will achieve a respectable growth rate in real gross domestic product in the second quarter. However, there are increasing signs of a noticeable economic slowdown in the USA as well. How strong the economic headwinds will be depends above all on the further course of action of the Federal Reserve. Whether it succeeds in bringing about a "soft landing" remains to be seen, but in the past strong interest rate hikes have almost always led to a significant economic slowdown, if not to a recession.

On the one hand, it is good news that it will take a while before a recession occurs, given the good labour market situation and the interest rate hike cycle that has just begun in the USA. On the other hand, however, it indicates that the US Federal Reserve will not leave it at just a few interest rate hikes. The danger that US monetary policy will cause a recession is therefore great. Investors should remain on their guard for the time being and not take any major risks.