Outlook 2026 (I): Between new beginnings and stagnation

2025 was turbulent – for the global economy and capital markets alike. Donald Trump's unpredictable policies left deep scars, just as predicted 12 months ago. The "Liberation Day" announced in April triggered massive uncertainty. Many economists feared higher inflation rates and an economic slowdown, even a recession. They were wrong. The global economy once again proved its resilience: in 2025 it grew by 3.2 percent (2024: 3.3 percent). The feared rise in inflation failed to materialize, with the exception of the USA. As a result, calm returned to the capital markets in May.

Over the next four weeks, we will examine the outlook for the new year. You can read about the economic developments we expect in today's first part of our annual outlook. Next week, we'll discuss the outlook for monetary policy, interest rates, and the US dollar, before turning our attention the following week to how the stock markets will perform in 2026. Are we dealing with a new bubble, or will the rally continue? And just before Christmas, we'll give you tips for asset allocation. Despite all the uncertainty surrounding forecasts, one thing is certain: next year won't be boring!