War in the Middle East: Is a new inflation shock imminent?

Anyone refuelling these days feels it immediately: the oil price has risen sharply within just a few days — with noticeable consequences for consumers and businesses alike.

Behind the price spike lies more than a regional conflict. The Strait of Hormuz, through which around 20% of global oil trade flows, is under growing geopolitical pressure. Our analysis shows which sectors and regions are particularly affected — and why major Asian economies such as Japan or South Korea would suffer especially from a potential supply disruption.

What economic consequences would a prolonged disruption to energy supplies have — and how resilient is Europe really?